Preview: VfB Stuttgart v. 1. FC Union Berlin, Bundesliga Relegation Playoff, First Leg

Mercedes-Benz Arena, Stuttgart

Thursday, May 23

20:30 CEST, 2:30 p.m. EDT

• Referee: Bastian Dankert
• All-Time in All Competitions: 1 Stuttgart win, 1 draw
• Union Berlin's Form: D-D-W-L-W-D
• Union Berlin's 2. Bundesliga Position: 3rd, 57 points, +23 GD
• Stuttgart's Form: L-L-W-L-W-D
• Stuttgart's 1. Bundesliga Position: 16th, 28 points, -38 GD

We're living in a world where the same team has won the title in consecutive years in each of Europe's top five leagues. With the same teams consistently at the top, it almost makes you forget what this sport is really all about.

As the game becomes increasingly commercialized, it's increasingly difficult for fans, especially those abroad, to focus on the aspects that make sport such an integral part of human culture. Because above all, while it may be a results-driven business, the fan atmosphere is one driven by community.

So, as 1. FC Union Berlin face potential promotion to the Bundesliga for the first time in the club's history, there's an understandable concern in the fan base, that the bright lights and big names of the top flight will commercialize, and therefore, cheapen the club's character.

You can see it in the pieces popping up around the Internet in advance of this playoff tie, which all tend to focus on the same bits of information, the same things that made someone like me fall in love with the club in the first place: that the fans once gave their own blood to help the club raise money to secure its league licenses, that they offered their time and service to help rebuild the stadium, sitting deep in the forests of Köpenick, that they started the tradition of gathering in that stadium every December to sing Christmas carols.

Presented in a fluff piece, the rote listing of these facts can almost come off as patronizing, that this a club to be marveled at like a spectacle in a museum, when it should instead serve as a reminder to those fans around the world who bandwagon onto the big money Champions League clubs because it's easy to root for a winner:

This is community. This is passion. This is what football should mean.

Whatever happens over these two legs against Stuttgart won't change that, whether Union calls the first or second division home next year. The concerns may be legitimate, but the culture is too strong to be cheapened.

Unsere Liebe. Unsere Mannschaft. Unser Stolz. Unser Verein.

Und niemals vergessen, Eisern Union.

A Word on Vocabulary

For English-speakers, if you're reading around the Internet about these playoff games and doing some Google translating, you may come across some mistranslated terminology. In German, die Relegation generally refers to this type of playoff system and the tie as a whole. The German word for the actual demotion of teams, which the English would refer to as relegation, is der Abstieg.

Team News

Out: Schönheim (knee)
Suspended: Hübner (one match, yellow card accumulation)

Florian Hübner, shown here with a lobster claw
on his right hand, is suspended tomorrow. He'll
likely be replaced by Michael Parensen, who is
in the background of this photo, so wait, what
game is this even from??

Florian Hübner's yellow card against Bochum was his 10th of the season, so I spent much of Monday trying to convince myself that the card totals would wipe out because the season was technically over and this was a different competition. But Urs Fischer confirmed in yesterday's press conference that that was wishful thinking and Hübner will be unavailable tomorrow. Aside from that, it's the same personnel that's been available of late.

Not having one of your center backs available for the away leg of one of the most important two-legged ties the club has ever played is... not ideal. However, Union's record without Hübner this season was surprisingly decent. Florian did not appear in six matches this season, with Union winning three (all at home, over Aue, Bochum, and Hamburg) drawing two, and losing one. The draws included the trip to Köln back in August and the 1-1 in Fürth last month. The loss was three weeks ago at Darmstadt.

Michael Parensen started in Hübner's place in five of the six matches. In the sixth, the game at Fürth, Nikolai Rapp started at center back; he was sent off after 70 minutes.

With that aside, the only question, for me at least, is how defense Urs Fischer decides he wants to be in the road leg. To that end, I expect an XI similar to the one that started at Bochum, with Felix Kroos and Robert Žulj sitting behind the two Sebastian's up top. You don't want to concede a handful of goals in the name of hunting an away goal and lose the tie before you've even brought it back to Berlin. And now's not the time to experiment with a different formation, either.

Predicted XI: Gikiewicz, Trimmel, Friedrich, Parensen, Reichel, Prömel, Schmiedebach, Kroos, Žulj, Andersson, Polter.

Stuttgart Team News

Out: Beck (knee)
Doubts: Kempf (knock,) Zuber (knee,) Thommy (ankle)
Suspended: Ascacíbar (sixth of six, spitting,) Maffeo (indefinite, club decision)

Santiago Ascacíbar is shown here getting sent off for
spitting at Kai Havertz, who is apparently nine
feet taller than him.

Midfielder Santiago Ascacíbar will serve the sixth and final match of a red suspension he picked up on April 13 when he spit at Bayer Leverkusen's Kai Havertz at the end of a 1-0 home loss. As far as I can tell, he'll be available for the return leg at Alte Försterei, as the suspension is listed as being "through and including May 25th," and the second leg is the 27th.

Right back Pablo Maffeo, Stuttgart's second most expensive transfer purchase ever, has been suspended by the club since mid-April and will almost certainly be sold this summer, entering him deep into the discussion as to whether he is the club's worst ever signing.

Right back Andreas Beck has been out with a knee injury he picked up against Hertha earlier this month and will not likely feature in the tie. There are doubts over defender Marc Oliver Kempf (muscular injury,) and midfielders Steven Zuber (knee) and Erik Thommy (ankle;) all three are back in training and are listed as available, but none are expected to make the starting XI.

As for who will be in that starting XI, well, Ron-Robert Zieler has been between the posts for all 35 of Stuttgart's games this season, so that's an easy selection, as are the fullback selections, as Benjamin Pavard made 29 appearances and Emilian Insúa made 28.

There are issues at center back, however, with Kempf and Beck unavailable, as they made the most appearances this season among the rest of the defenders. Timo Baumgardl and Holger Badstuber played as the center back partnership last weekend in their 0-0 draw at Schalke. Badstuber, as you might expect if you've followed his career, missed a lot of time injured this season, so it's more likely that the start will go to 19-year-old Ozan Kabak, who has made 15 appearances this season despite only joining from Galatasaray in the January window. Badstuber's 90 minutes against Schalke was the first time he played a full match since November 2.

After Zieler and Pavard, nobody else in the side saw more time on the pitch than the suspended Ascacíbar, so Stuttgart will have to continue to reshuffle a bit in midfield. Christian Gentner and ex-Dortmund Gonzalo Castro isn't too shabby though, to sit behind ex-Wolfsburg attacking midfielder Daniel Didavi, and a trio of forwards in Alexander Esswein, Nicólas Gónzalez, and Mario Gómez up top.

Predicted XI: Zieler, Pavard, Baumgartl, Kabak, Insúa, Gentner, Castro, Didavi, Esswein, Gónzalez, Gómez.

Season in Review

Union came from 2-0 down to draw level 2-2 with
Bochum on Sunday, knowing one more goal would
send them to automatic promotion. It never came,
so now, they'll do it the hard way.

It was at some point after Bochum made it 2-0 but before the red card on Sunday when I found myself thinking "it's been 34 games and I still don't know what to make of this season for Union Berlin..." Union won seven fixtures in each of the Hinrunde and the Rückrunde, going unbeaten through the first half of the season thanks to an absurd 10 draws. On the back end, they struggled a bit more, especially on their travels, losing five in the second half of the season while racking up an additional five draws. Their 57 points would've been enough for automatic promotion if their goal difference were better, but third place is still their best ever placement in the 2. Bundesliga table (note: it's not their highest point total in club history; their 60 in 2016/17 wasn't enough in the end.)

Stuttgart spent the entirety of the season facing relegation, winning only four matches in the Hinrunde and three in the Rückrunde, though two of those wins have come in their last four fixtures. Stuttgart's home record was mediocre, winning six and drawing four against seven losses, but it was their record on their travels that truly doomed them: one win (at Nürnberg in November,) three draws, and 13 losses.

With a record like that, Union have to like their chances at Alte Försterei; they just have to get a decent result in Stuttgart first, something 11 teams did this season. It's just those two recent home wins that might give an Unioner some pause, as they came against decent sides in Mönchengladbach and Wolfsburg. These both came after Stuttgart's 6-0 loss at Augsburg on April 20th which essentially sealed their fate to play in this playoff tie. Gladbach and Wolfsburg, despite their own battles for European football, couldn't match that last ditch desperation from the Swabians.

Match Facts

Last time these clubs met in Stuttgart, this Alexandru
Maxim free kick gave the hosts a 1-0 lead.

Stuttgart yo-yo'ed down to the 2. Bundesliga in 2016 and won promotion again immediately, racking up 69 points in a tight title race that saw them finish two points clear of Hannover to win the division and three points clear of Braunschweig to avoid the playoff (and nine points clear of Union in fourth.) That was Stuttgart's only foray into the lower division since 1977, meaning the two matches played between Stuttgart and Union that year have been their only ever competitive meetings. Stuttgart took four points from the Berliners.

In the Hinrunde, the clubs met on matchday 13 in November at Alte Försterei. Simon Terodde opened the scoring for the visitors on three minutes (of course he did) but Steven Skrzybski equalized for the hosts on the hour mark and the match ended level, 1-1.

But the reverse fixture in Stuttgart was a watershed for the season. It was a Monday night, April 24, matchday 30. Union had tumbled from first down to fourth during the course of the month and Stuttgart were sitting at the top of the table. It was a chance for Union to undo some of the damage that had been done in that month, after losses to Hannover and Aue. I remember it very well and especially remember it being a Monday fixture, because I had to follow the game by obsessively refreshing Twitter during a staff meeting at work.

Alexandru Maxim and Terodde (again!) scored four minutes apart to give Stuttgart a 2-0 halftime lead. Sebastian Polter pulled one back on 57 minutes, but Daniel Ginczeck restored the hosts two-goal lead on 68 minutes and Skrzybski left injured a minute later, scuppering any Union chance at a comeback.

The loss left Union still three points adrift of the playoff spot. Two weeks later, they lost on another Monday night while I was refreshing Twitter in a staff meeting, 3-1 at Braunschweig, when Ken Reichel (!) scored twice for the hosts, essentially sealing Union's fourth place fate.

Bundesliga Relegation Playoff Facts

Neither of these sides have ever contested this playoff tie before. The West German Bundesliga used the playoff system from 1981/82 through unification; in those 10 years, the top flight side retained their status seven times. The Bundesliga brought the playoff back in 2008/09 and in the past 10 years, the top flight side retained their status eight times, including in each of the last six years.

So, you might say the 2. Bundesliga is due...

The Referee

Bastian Dankert is shown here getting video assistance
from the VAR and also, Ribéry is there to add his
opinion, for some reason. Those Bayern players, always
so helpful, am I right?

The referee is Bastian Dankert. It doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence that Dankert was the referee for Union's most recent loss, 2-1 at Darmstadt earlier this month, but maybe that's cancelled out by the fact that he was also the referee for one of Union's three road victories this season, 2-1 at Ingolstadt back in October.

But then again, maybe this swings back around on the fact that he's worked two Stuttgart games this season and they were both home victories for them: 5-1 over Hannover in March and 1-0 over Gladbach at the end of April.

So, Union won only three times on their travels this season, but Dankert was the referee for the first one. And Stuttgart won only three times in the Rückrunde, but Dankert was the referee for two of them. All-time, Stuttgart have a record of four wins, seven losses, and two draws with Dankert in the middle. For Union, it's five wins, two losses, and one draw. Sounds great! Does this tell you enough to read into this and make any wild assumptions?

Let's read into it some more! Dankert is East German, born in 1980 in Schwerin and currently living in Rostock. Is that a good or a bad thing for Union? I have no idea! If it's any help, he did take charge of the 3-1 Aue win over Karlsruhe at the end of last season that kept the East German side in the second division.

While on the topic of East Germany as a contemporary region, Union's history with Dankert actually goes way back to the first full season of his career, to 2005/06, when Union were relegated to the fourth division and the NOFV-Oberliga. Dankert was the referee on matchday 1, when Union beat Berliner AK 07 2-1 at Alte Försterei in front of a crowd of 6,500. Seems auspicious!

It's also worth noting here that these two games will feature goal-line technology as well as VAR and Dankert went to the 2018 World Cup as one of the video assistants. So that's... a thing, again, not really good or bad, I guess...

--
John Painting is a contributing writer and co-founder of Eisern NYC. He can be found on Twitter @zorrocat.